Tuesday, 06 March 2007 00:00 | Michael Schwartz
Broadband access in emerging markets has until now been slow to develop due to its reliance on widespread copper-pair infrastructure. Analysys now believes that broadband access in such markets is likely to develop mainly thanks to the roll-out of wireless access networks. Indeed, Analysys is predicting that "more than half of broadband access revenues in Algeria could be derived from wireless access technologies by 2012...a possible indicator of things to come in other emerging markets."
There are several factors that Analysys believes will affect wireless broadband take-up in exactly this type of market:
And Algeria in particular?
Based on recent work by Analysys not just in Algeria but also in similar markets, Algeria is a market that will see strong growth in wireless broadband. Looking to the immediate past to try to predict the immediate future, the number of Algerian mobile subscribers has increased dramatically (from 4.9 million in 2004 to 20.6 million at the end of 2006). Given possible plans to award a fourth mobile licence in 2007 and the 35% privatisation of the incumbent Algerie Telecom expected soon, the Algerian telecoms market will undergo significant change in the next few years. In terms of the key success factors above:
Analysys estimates that the Internet broadband market in Algeria will reach 2.2 million access lines and more than US$650 million of revenues in 2012. It expects more than half of these revenues to be derived from wireless access technologies (mobile broadband, WiMAX and FWA (Chart 1). What happens in Algeria may well prove an indicator of things to come in other emerging markets.
Chart 1: Forecast of broadband market revenues by access technology in Algeria (Source: ARPT, EIU, ITU, Analysys Consulting, 2007)
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