The Indian government is reportedly projecting a 33% drop in telecoms revenue in its fiscal year 2026, although that’s partly due to the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) raking in more telecoms revenue than expected for FY2025.
According to ETTelecom, citing budget documents, the government earned INR1.23 trillion (US$14 billion) in the current fiscal year ending March 31, and is projected to earn just INR824.4 billion in FY2026.
However, the INR1.23 trillion figure is 2.6% higher than the government’s original projection of INR1.20 trillion.
The report said the extra revenue came partly from spectrum allocations to state-run telco BSNL and Indian Railways, the latter of which acquired an extra 5 MHz of 700-MHz spectrum after the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India recommended the allocation last month.
Meanwhile, the government also received advance payments from Bharti Airtel in December 2024 on spectrum the telco purchased in a 2016 auction, the report said.
There was also the DoT's 5G spectrum auction in July 2024, although the auction pulled in just Rs113.4 billion (US$1.35 billion), a tenth of the value of the total spectrum on offer and India’s lowest auction result in recent years.
Industry analysts told ETTelecom that the FY2026 drop in telecoms revenue is likely due to the fact that no additional spectrum allocations or auctions are slated for the next year. The government earns telecoms revenues mostly from licence fees and spectrum usage charges (SUC) from telcos, which are based on a percentage of their adjusted gross revenue (AGR).
The projected INR824.4 billion for FY2026 includes upcoming regulatory payouts towards deferred spectrum and AGR dues once the moratorium on these payments ends in September this year, the report said.
