Based on operator figures from the first half of 2011, Thailand’s mobile market has performed more positively than might have been expected, according to BMI.
Taking into account H111 key performance indicators from two of the country’s largest operators - mobile players AIS and DTAC – Thailand’s mobile market may perform better than anticipated over the next five years. However, downward trends in the fixed-line segment and expansion in the fixed and mobile broadband markets are in line with expectations.
The parameters of Thailand’s mobile market have shifted following True's acquisition of the CDMA wireless business of Hutchison. True has taken the opportunity to create a new wireless group, which encompasses its TrueMove GSM unit, the Hutch CDMA business and a new entity geared towards developing a national 3G platform.
This latter goal is to be achieved either with or without state-owned CAT Telecom – which had partnered with Hutchison – though legal action brought by rival DTAC may prematurely end advanced plans to establish joint HSPA services. TOT, meanwhile, is said to be working with AIS to develop 900MHz HSPA 3G services, but that project may also come to naught if the new Thai government decides to rethink the way 3G services are offered in Thailand.
This mix of positive demand for the proposed advanced services (smartphone sales are strong at AIS, DTAC and TrueMove) combined with political interference in licensing will be a key theme of Thailand’s mobile market across the next five years. While there will likely be around 91.9mn mobile subscribers by 2015, there will be little opportunity for 3G connections to also increase.
Efforts by broadband providers such as True and Triple T Broadband, which have aggressively marketed their products in response to buoyant demand for high-speed services, mean that Thai broadband market will likely continue to grow robustly.
The end of 2011 should see around 3.390mn broadband subscribers in Thailand, a figure that should push around 4.769mn by 2015, representing a penetration rate of 6.8%. Meanwhile, the number of fixed-line subscribers in the country is expected to fall to 6.579mn in 2011 as the fixed-to-mobile service migration accelerates.
