IDC has cut its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2025 to just 0.6% growth (1.25 billion units) down from a previous projection of 2.3%, due to persistent economic uncertainty and volatility across many regions as key factors behind the revision.
IDC pointed to macroeconomic challenges such as inflation, unemployment, and unstable tariffs, all of which continue to dampen consumer demand for smartphones.
Despite ongoing tensions between the US and China, both markets are expected to drive flat overall growth this year. In China, shipments are forecast to rise by 3% year-on-year, supported by government subsidies and a boost in Android device sales. Apple, however, is expected to see a 1.9% decline in the country, attributed to mounting competition from Huawei, a slowing economy, and limited eligibility for subsidies - capped at CNY6,000 - for most iPhone models.
In the US, IDC research director Anthony Scarsella said the market will grow by just 1.9% in 2025, down from a previous projection of 3.3%. He noted that while the ongoing US-China trade war has had an impact, further decline was mitigated by the fact that most devices in the US are sold through operators, which support demand with trade-in offers and interest-free financing.
Scarsella added that although the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones was forecast to rise by 4%, the expected decline in shipments will reduce its impact on consumer spend - particularly as new premium devices are expected in the second half of the year.
IDC senior research director Nabila Popal commented: “Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk.
“Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts.
“Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20–30% on US-bound smartphones could pose a serious downside risk to the current US market outlook.”
