The Philippines’ mobile market is approaching saturation, which is leading to a slowdown in subscriber growth, according to BMI. The firm has forecast 94.8mn mobile subscribers by end-2011, representing a penetration rate of 99.3%, and envisages this number to increase to 115.1mn in 2015.
Meanwhile, ARPU rates are likely to continue to trend downwards in light of the prevalence of prepaid subscribers and operators embarking on aggressive pricing strategies to offset the slowing growth momentum.
In order to offset declining opportunities in the Philippines telecoms market, and mitigate uncertainties arising from its pending purchase of Digitel, PLDT has announced plans to become an MVNO in at least two other countries, expanding its international presence beyond Hong Kong and Singapore. The business of PLDT Global, the international sales and marketing arm of PLDT, has been relatively successful after the company achieved a penetration rate of around 30.1% in a mere few years, and this may well give PLDT Global the confidence to venture into more lucrative markets.
The Philippines' real GDP growth came in at 4.9% y-o-y in Q111, slowing substantially from the 6.1% print recorded in the preceding quarter. While investment-driven economic expansion will remain an important theme in 2011, especially with President Benigno Aquino III's pro-foreign direct investment initiatives, there will likely be a deceleration in capital formation expansion, due to the high base in 2010.
