2015 Trends

Ventura Next: Stefan Stanislawski's 2015 Trends

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Category: 2015 Trends
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Building on a sudden surge of activity last year, we expect a great deal of growth in fibre to the business premises (FTTP) and fibre to the home (FTTH) in 2015. 

Over the last couple of years there were some FTTH deployments in Kenya and elsewhere and South Africa has had extensive supply business fibre for some time but in the second half of 2014 the rate of announcements and investment greatly accelerated. We are proud to be playing a role in this process as the partner for the open access active layer to the most innovative and the pioneer of consumer gigabit broadband in Africa - Vumatel (South Africa). 

In South Africa it is now clear that there is something of a race for fibre territory and in this land grab there is almost a new announcement every week of another suburb to be fibred.  What the pioneers like Vumatel have shown is that it is both practical and cost-effective to provide consumer fibre to a substantial number of homes. This is possible because over the last few years a variety of national backhaul networks were built which then extended into metro area networks.  Competitive supply has stimulated the market greatly enabling new entrepreneurs to bring new energy and experimentation to the market.

Although there is not necessarily the level of choice and competition in backhaul other African markets many countries now have completed the build-out of a national fibre backbone and these networks are seeking traffic. By offering capacity in or close to key residential areas, these networks can stimulate the development of FTTH and generate significant traffic and revenue for themselves. This simple economic logic is now play in many African markets although clearly, the market with the greatest potential is Nigeria. In Nigeria the government has adopted a far-sighted policy of licensing several open access backbone networks. Over time it seems inevitable that these will stimulate the deployment of FTTH to probably more than 20 million homes in Nigeria.

The African continent is right at the start of a widespread access fibre deployment connecting the growing middle classes to world class services and entertainment.  2015 should be a vintage year!

Stefan Stanislawski is the Co-Founder of Ventura Next.



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