Trends & Forecasts

R&M: Morocco will top 35 million wireless subs in 2013, Maroc Telecom will still lose share

 Maroc Telecom’s market share is set to continue its decline, sinking to 46.7% by 2013. This prediction is made in Research and Markets’ new report, which also forecasts 35 million mobile subscriptions in Morocco by the same date...

Research and Markets has announced a new report, 4Q09 Morocco Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009-2013; the forecast provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Morocco's wireless market. The publisher provides five-year forecasts at the operator level looking  towards 2013, as well as providing quarterly historical and forecast data, starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Morocco include Maroc Telecom SA, Meditel (Medi Telecom), and Wana.

 Subscriber growth, the report notes, is slowing down in Morocco's wireless market, despite growth of 16.1% as an industry average in 2Q09. ARPU levels, which continue to decline in Morocco, are also a problem; an average ARPU growth in 2Q09 can not disguise low consumer spending. Negative EBITDA growth by Maroc Telecom and Meditel in 3Q09 do not help.

As far as forecasts are concerned, the authors believe total wireless subscribers in Morocco will reach 35.9 million in 2013. By this time, Maroc Telecom will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in Morocco, with 16.8 million subscribers in 2013. Meditel will remain in second place (12.6 million subscribers in 2013) while Wana will be third largest (6.5 million in 2013).

However, Maroc Telecom will lose subscriber market share to both Meditel and Wana over the next five years; Maroc Telecom's subscriber market share will decline from 58.2% in 2008 to 46.7% in 2013. In contrast, the author expects that Meditel's subscriber market share will increase from 31.5% to 35.1% and Wana's market share will increase from 10.4% to 18.2% over the forecast period 2008-2013.

Maroc Telecom will score in terms of ARPU. Here it will exceed Meditel even despite a predicted 6% fall in ARPU by 2013. In fact, Meditel’s ARPU will decrease by almost 25%.

* Research and Markets’ Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of over 200 mobile operators in over 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on the publisher's proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country. The publishers then relate these to company operational and financial metrics. The mobile operator forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

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