Broadband growth could see rural expansion drop off in Kenya

Details: James Barton; Category: Wireless Networks; 18 June 2012; 9708 views

After a slow start to 2011 with net additions of just 312,000 (229,000 in Q111 and 83,000 in Q211) in H111, Kenya's mobile market grew strongly in H211 with net additions of 2.801mn...

After a slow start to 2011 with net additions of just 312,000 (229,000 in Q111 and 83,000 in Q211) in H111, Kenya's mobile market grew strongly in H211 with net additions of 2.801mn (1.214mn in Q311 and 1.587mn in Q411), according to BMI.

This resulted in total net additions of 3.113mn subscribers, or growth of 12.5%, to bring the country's total mobile subscriber base to 28.081mn by December 2011. This reflected a penetration rate of 67.5%, up from 61.6% a year earlier. The market is expected to grow by an average of 7.9% over the next five years to reach 41mn subscribers by 2016, equivalent to penetration rate of 86.2%. Continued competition between the country's four mobile subscriber, leading to affordable tariffs and network expansion, will be the key growth driver of mobile subscriptions during this period.

However, market growth could be affected if operators shift their strategies towards high value services for revenue growth as opposed to network expansion to underserved and low-income rural areas. Orange and Airtel joined Safaricom in the 3G market in late 2011 and early 2012 respectively to take advantage of the rising demand for demand services. Given the intense downward pressure on traditional voice tariffs, there is a tendency for operators to seek to offset the shortfall in voice revenue by focusing on the more lucrative mobile data market.

This situation could redirect resources for rural roll-out towards the expansion and upgrade of data networks in urban areas to cope with demand. Meanwhile, a third 3G provider has driven subscriptions up, with 4.961mn 3G subscribers forecast for end of 2012, equivalent to 15.5% of the total mobile subscriber base. By 2016, the proportion of 3G subscribers in relation to the total mobile subscriber base is expected to reach 23.5%.

The decline of Kenya's fixed-line sector accelerated in Q411, with net losses of 67,588 subscribers. This brought total net losses in 2011 to 97,202 subscribers. The downtrend is driven by the PSTN segment, which recorded net losses of 135,773 subscribers in the 12 months to December 2011 to reach 90,814. Although the fixed-wireless segment also reported net losses in Q411, its overall performance in 2011 was more encouraging with total net additions of 38,571mn.

According to the CCK, the number of internet users in Kenya reached 17.4mn by December 2011. The regulator's data also showed a steady growth in mobile data access lines, although it did not reveal the number of 3G-based mobile internet connections. Orange Kenya launched commercial 3G services in August 2011, followed by Airtel in February 2012. Along with network investment by fixed network broadband service providers, this is likely to drive growth in the internet sector over the next five years.